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Post by Tim Munslow on Feb 28, 2017 17:07:08 GMT
I'm sorry to be a bit of a party pooper, but, being realistic, I think relegation is now 90% certain. Last year Lowestoft occupied the third (20th place) relegation spot and were duly relegated with 46 points. We currently have 28. That means we need, say, 20 points from our remaining fixtures. Can you see where the next goal is coming from, let alone the next point?
Of our remaining fixtures Darlington, Nuneaton, Brackley, AFC Telford, Curzon Ashton, Chorley, Stockport County, Salford City and AFC Fylde look like certain defeats. Maybe we can get a point or two from Boston United and Stalybridge Celtic (though that is by no means certain): that won't be enough.
Short of a miraculous turn in form and fortune then I think we're already doomed. Perhaps that's a blessing in disguise. At least we'll presumably get a local derby with Hereford out of it.
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Post by Woodenose on Feb 28, 2017 17:55:02 GMT
I'm sorry to be a bit of a party pooper, but, being realistic, I think relegation is now 90% certain. Last year Lowestoft occupied the third (20th place) relegation spot and were duly relegated with 46 points. We currently have 28. That means we need, say, 20 points from our remaining fixtures. Can you see where the next goal is coming from, let alone the next point?
Of our remaining fixtures Darlington, Nuneaton, Brackley, AFC Telford, Curzon Ashton, Chorley, Stockport County, Salford City and AFC Fylde look like certain defeats. Maybe we can get a point or two from Boston United and Stalybridge Celtic (though that is by no means certain): that won't be enough.
Short of a miraculous turn in form and fortune then I think we're already doomed. Perhaps that's a blessing in disguise. At least we'll presumably get a local derby with Hereford out of it. Possibly that is true, but all is not lost yet as Gainsborough have a harder run in than city, out of their last remaining games (11) they have to play 7 of the top 8 clubs which includes the 6 in the currant play off positions. |
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Post by Tim Munslow on Feb 28, 2017 20:10:58 GMT
Gainsboro' have a new manager. You always get the "new manager bounce".
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Post by zeke on Feb 28, 2017 20:49:19 GMT
Gainsboro' have a new manager. You always get the "new manager bounce". We didn't  |
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Post by ac on Feb 28, 2017 20:59:48 GMT
Gainsboro' have a new manager. You always get the "new manager bounce". We didn't We haven't got one yet! |
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Post by zeke on Feb 28, 2017 22:27:05 GMT
That's why I put But, like Leicester, a new person in charge can revitalise a team performance |
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Post by adycrean on Mar 1, 2017 13:01:17 GMT
I thought (Tim) that 46 points sounded a lot - but prior years not really any better with one exception: third relegation place was 45; 37; 44; 48 points in the prior 4 seasons.
Scanning the fixtures, and being extremely optimistic given the current predicament, I could see us earning 12 points (but I certainly wouldn't bet on it). So relies on Gainsborough being worse than us. They do have a new manager, he has been signing new players....
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Post by greenman on Mar 1, 2017 15:38:42 GMT
12 points from the remaining fixtures, you must be joking. I said prior to the Altrincham game we will not get another point from the rest of the season. I wish I could be more positive but someone tell me who is going to score a goal and watching the shambles of a defence conceding last Saturday we are not going to keep a clean sheet against anyone.
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Post by Tim Munslow on Mar 2, 2017 17:01:54 GMT
I'm afraid that's my thinking entirely. I just cannot see where the next goal is going to come from.
I am open to being utterly wrong and mightily surprised of course! Football is a funny old game.
P.S. If Ranieri is at a loose end and feels like a challenge..........
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Post by Woodenose on Mar 2, 2017 17:47:33 GMT
12 Points from the remaining fixtures does look a lot. Gainsborough need 10 points from their remaining games, but as I mentioned in an earlier post ,they have to play the top 6 + Tamworth who are 8th,so in theory we only need 2 points more than Gainsborough as our goal difference is better (at the moment)
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Post by Tim Munslow on Mar 13, 2017 19:51:15 GMT
I must admit that after Saturday it was nice to look in the Non-League Paper and see our name (just) above that black line! Our goal difference is miles better than Gainsboro's. Perhaps that "90% certain" above was a bit too pessimistic after all.
There's an interesting fixture on Tuesday night when Stalybridge are at home to Bradford PA: a win for Stalybridge would be the best result as far as we're concerned*. And two more interesting fixtures from our point of view next Saturday when Telford take on Bradford PA and Altrincham take on Stalybridge. Things are getting very exciting.
Makes a win against Boston even more desirable.
* Staly did win 4-3, so BPA have lost their game in hand and their goal difference is also worse than ours, although at the mo they are 1 point in front of us.
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Post by Tim Munslow on Mar 17, 2017 17:47:42 GMT
Apart from our own relegation battle v Boston this Saturday there are several other intriguing relegation battles taking place: Altrincham v Stalybridge Celtic, AFC Telford Utd v Bradford Park Avenue and Tamworth v Gainsborough Trinity (not exactly a relegation battle for Tamworth I know). It will be very interesting to see the outcome of those three.
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Post by zeke on Mar 17, 2017 18:14:58 GMT
A lot more exciting than being mid-table safety at this point of the season |
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Post by lancashirelad on Mar 17, 2017 20:27:25 GMT
Apart from our own relegation battle v Boston this Saturday there are several other intriguing relegation battles taking place: Altrincham v Stalybridge Celtic, AFC Telford Utd v Bradford Park Avenue and Tamworth v Gainsborough Trinity (not exactly a relegation battle for Tamworth I know). It will be very interesting to see the outcome of those three. Alty and Celtic are already down; but we could do with Telford and Tamworth both winning, then if City draw again, it won't seem that bad  |
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Post by Tim Munslow on Mar 18, 2017 13:40:08 GMT
Not sure without checking if Alty and Celtic are mathematically down: with nine games to go I doubt it, and Alty seem to be having a mini-revival.
Will be very interesting to see at 5.00 pm today!
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Post by zeke on Mar 19, 2017 17:02:53 GMT
OK so we're still in with a chance. But how impressive is it that we didn't win a game in August and have gone over 4 moths without a league win, yet still aren't in the relegation spot?
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Post by jupu on Mar 20, 2017 0:04:45 GMT
I think you've used the wrong word, I'd replace "impressive" with "fortunate."
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Post by zeke on Mar 20, 2017 1:04:23 GMT
I think you've used the wrong word, I'd replace "impressive" with "fortunate." Yes you're right and I'd like to replace "moths" with "months" |
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harley
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Post by harley on Mar 20, 2017 9:14:43 GMT
OK so we're still in with a chance. But how impressive is it that we didn't win a game in August and have gone over 4 moths without a league win, yet still aren't in the relegation spot? When you put it like that it shows what a poor season the teams below us must be having. |
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Post by jupu on Mar 20, 2017 13:35:07 GMT
OK so we're still in with a chance. But how impressive is it that we didn't win a game in August and have gone over 4 moths without a league win, yet still aren't in the relegation spot? When you put it like that it shows what a poor season the teams below us must be having. I think it also underlines the environment that we're now competing in - a league with a mix of full-time and semi-pro clubs, a number of bankrolled clubs, a number of long-standing non-league clubs who are finding it increasingly hard to compete at this level. It's a different sort of league to the one we rejoined when we moved back from the South. If we were to stay up it would be more of the same next season. |
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Post by alwaysnextyear on Mar 20, 2017 17:48:43 GMT
As jupu states, it is a tough, hard, competitive division. Clubs with stadiums, finance, and ambitions that we can only dream of, are very difficult to consistently compete against. With our comparable resources, just stopping in the division is an achievement.
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Post by jupu on Mar 22, 2017 8:53:20 GMT
I think it's a straight fight between Gainsborough and ourselves for the final relegation place now. As has been mentioned before Gainsborough have a tough run in:
25/03 Darlington Home
01/04 Chorley Away
08/04 Stockport County Home
14/04 Salford City Home
17/04 Brackley Town Away
22/04 Kidderminster Harriers Home
29/04 FC United Away
So it would be a case of trying to match or better their results each week.
Gainsborough I believe have the unusual distinction of never having been promoted or relegated in their entire history?
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Post by adycrean on Mar 22, 2017 9:19:36 GMT
And we have….
Stalybridge (A)
Telford (A)
Curzon Ashton (H)
Chorley (A)
Stockport (H)
Salford (H)
Fylde (A)
Saturday at Staly looks winnable (if game is on) but Steve Burr now in charge and he is making changes. If we don’t get 4/5 points from next 3 games then I think we are doomed
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jonnyred
Reserve Teamer
c'mon u bluuuues!
Posts: 112
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Post by jonnyred on Mar 22, 2017 10:59:02 GMT
I think it's a straight fight between Gainsborough and ourselves for the final relegation place now. As has been mentioned before Gainsborough have a tough run in: 22/04 Kidderminster Harriers Home So it would be a case of trying to match or better their results each week. Gainsborough I believe have the unusual distinction of never having been promoted or relegated in their entire history? I've now got that horrible nagging feeling about that game vs Kiddy  Yes, I remember chatting to a few of their fans in the 2-2 earlier this season at the VG and they were proudly relaying that stat of never been relegated to me, quite some feat! Not sure about the promotion bit, theyve moved around leagues a bit havent they so I assume theyve been promoted by play off or a straight promotion spot surely? |
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Post by alwaysnextyear on Mar 22, 2017 13:18:52 GMT
adycrean is spot on. We have to get our points in the next 3 games, as the last 4 look horrible. Having said that, 6 of Gainsborough's 7 games look horrible also. It's in our hands still, but survival has to start this Saturday.
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Post by adycrean on Mar 29, 2017 19:08:57 GMT
Telford's win v Stalybridge on Tuesday make it look even more like a battle to avoid the final relegation spot between us and Gainsborough
I enjoyed the match on Saturday and was impressed with the fight and commitment of the team.
Feels increasingly like it may all be academic however as our Board's incompetence and profligacy will shape our future - on and off the pitch. Am I alone in not having any faith whatsoever in the Board's ability to make sensible decisions about where we play next year??
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Post by alwaysnextyear on Apr 11, 2017 21:49:57 GMT
With Stalybridge winning tonight vs Kidderminster, it's made life interesting ! Any two from three !
Worcester 34 pts GD -15
Gainsborough 31 pts GD -30
Stalybridge 29 pts GD -38
Worcester 4 games left
Gainsborough 4 games left
Stalybridge 5 games left
Worcester - Chorley (A), Stockport ( H ) , Salford ( H ), Fylde ( A )
Gainsborough - Salford (H), Brackley (A), Kidderminster (H), FC United Manchester (A)
Stalybridge - Gloucester (A), Chorley (H), Tamworth (H), Harrogate (H), Brackley (A)
We need a win.
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Post by jupu on Apr 18, 2017 9:23:28 GMT
So if I've worked this out right, should we beat Salford next Saturday and Harriers beat Gainsborough, we won't finish in the bottom three?
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Post by Dodger on Apr 18, 2017 10:25:54 GMT
So if I've worked this out right, should we beat Salford next Saturday and Harriers beat Gainsborough, we won't finish in the bottom three? Whilst mathematically, no.......realistically, yes. It would require a massive turnaround in goal difference for Gainsborough to then overtake us. The same applies to Stalybridge who would be able to muster the same number of points as us if they win their remaining 3 games. Dodger. |
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Post by Tim Munslow on May 1, 2017 11:09:00 GMT
I started this thread as far back as Feb 28th by saying I was "90% certain" we would be relegated: I was right unfortunately. However, it's only football and the sun will still come up tomorrow.
Here's a quote from Bill Cook's official City history when summarising our season in 1984/5 when we were last relegated:-
"City's most recent relegation came as the financial reality of the very high cost of six seasons in the Alliance/Gola League began to reflect on City's financial state." It would seem nothing has changed in 32 years. Bring back Bill Jones or Nobby Clark I say!
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