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Post by LeedsWCFC on Apr 9, 2007 0:31:54 GMT
If City manage to win the four remaining matches and if Nuneaton Borough manage the same but without getting a better goal difference than City finish with then we need five of the following scenarios to occur if we are going to achieve a miracle and a place in the top five.
Harrogate Town need to drop 10 points and have their goal difference significantly reduced in games against Kettering Town (A), Barrow (H), Droylsden (A) and Worcester City (H). One victory will mean they cannot be caught by City.
Workington need to drop 12 points in games against Stalybridge Celtic (A), Gainsborough Trinity (H), Farsley Celtic (A), Droylsden (H) and Lancaster City (H).
Hinckley United need to drop 10 points in games against Kettering Town (H), Barrow (A), Hyde United (H), Lancaster City (H) and Blyth Spartans (A).
Blyth Spartans need to drop 7 points in games against Farsley Celtic (A), Vauxhall Motors (H), Gainsborough Trinity (A), Lancaster City (A) and Hinckley United (H).
Hyde United need to drop 3 points in games against Barrow (A), Alfreton Town (H), Hinckley United (A) and Droylsden (H).
Farsley Celtic need to drop 6 points in games against Blyth Spartans (H), Lancaster City (A), Worksop Town (H), Workington (H) and Redditch United (A).
Moor Green need to drop 2 points in games against Scarborough (H), Droylsden (A), Worksop Town (A) and Barrow (H).
Will someone please pass me some more straws to clutch?
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Post by leighbaker on Apr 9, 2007 0:41:41 GMT
We don't need alot then!
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Post by LeedsWCFC on Apr 9, 2007 0:47:44 GMT
I don't see why people think we can't do it.  |
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Post by leighbaker on Apr 9, 2007 1:21:10 GMT
its not that i don't think we can't do it but i don't think Harrogate, Workington and Hinckley are going to drop 10 or more points! its mathematically possible but a little optimistic
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Post by andy on Apr 9, 2007 7:53:13 GMT
Good analysis, K.
L:ike I said, because of the Lancaster facor, I cant see anything happening with Workington or Hinckley.
Because your scenario relies on us winning all four, that includes Harrogate losing. Which means Harrogate not gaining more than two points against Kettering away (today), Barrow at home (next Saturday) and Droylsden (the following Saturday).
I can see them perhaps losing one and drawing one against Kettering/Droylsden, leaving us dependant on a draw by Barrow at Harrogate, a game in which Barrow will be hindered by the absence of the two players sent off at the Lane. That said, Harrogate will also be missing a key player.
All assumes City win four. START TODAY!!!
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Post by villager on Apr 9, 2007 9:04:15 GMT
Tend to think teams above us will continue to drop points ... like they have the past few weeks.
We can't take advantage of the situation though, so it can't see it happening. Sorry.
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Post by smog on Apr 9, 2007 10:01:06 GMT
the problem with any of the scenarios is right in front of our noses!!! we just dont play enough progressive and positive football that i (for one )can believe in! it s very very sporadic! personally i d rather see teams progress that are playing attractive football or attempting too anyway. we just dont deserve it. wishing for others failure is more than a little sad at this stage! we ve had a problem breaking down sides at home and the continued lack of ambition of our football from open play is sad. it hurts to say this but the most negative side i ve seen at the lane this season is us!! i ll say it again, even if there is some scenario that makes progress possible we just dont deserve it.... simple!
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Post by smog on Apr 9, 2007 10:16:07 GMT
i was persuaded by the performance against barrow that we were going to be playing some brighter footy, but everything i ve seen since suggests otherwise .... except for the last 20 minutes of the nuneaton game when webby s footballing instincts rose above the bland stalemate. he repeatedly attempted to pass a football!!!
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Post by B*ue dragonstander on Apr 9, 2007 12:31:28 GMT
There is I suppose the possibility of some financial irregularity or misdemeanour coming to light, administration (-10 points), ineligible players (-18 points or -3 depending what clout you have!), under the counter payments etc. How about that for straws?
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Post by andy on Apr 11, 2007 21:43:03 GMT
By my reckoning, City have to beat Worksop and Hucknall and then win by two clear goals at Harrogate (and other results will go in our favour for those 65 points to be enough - just - I am confident) and then proceed through the play-offs (against Droylsden in the first round, and then Workington or Hinckley in the final) or else we will be playing in Conference South next season.
In their saying the season is over, I am hoping that someone at the Club is good at maths and probabilities.
I'll tell you now, that I'm not turning up on Saturday thinking I'm watching an end of season 'nothing game'.
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Post by smog on Apr 11, 2007 23:01:39 GMT
i admire your stoicism andy!! i really do but the club is down to the bare bones of its players, unlikely to be recalling those out on loan, JT may get permission to leave early, chris smith was rested last saturday, AP and AM have been named as substitutes, all this tells me that even the club have long given up! i wont be turning up on saturday to watch an end of the season "nothing game" on saturday because these games should be being used for a basis for next season.
"we WILL be playing in the conference south next season"? you sound very positive andy? by my calculation that would require all three of the remaining relegation places from the conference to be northern clubs and for halesowen to make it through the play offs, none of which are certain.... or for city to actively seek to be moved and to be given permission!
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Post by andy on Apr 12, 2007 9:08:55 GMT
Its not stoicism, smog. It is realism. Anyone saying now that we have already failed to make the play-offs is plain wrong. OK, come Saturday, results may mean that we have failed, but those games have not been played yet.
Dont ignore Kings Lynn in the SLP.
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Post by andy on Apr 12, 2007 10:40:31 GMT
Anyway, for sake of discussion, here is what I think will happen.
Kettering, Droylsden and Workington will all finish in the top five, too far ahead of us to concern us what they do.
I do seriously believe that City will beat Worksop on Saturday and Hucknall the following Saturday. Danks is hungry for goals, and even with a depleted back five, a 3-4-3 formation will see us to six points. Thats 62 points going into the final game. Against Harrogate.
Harrogate will be held to a draw at home to Barrow on Saturday, and will hold Droylsden for a point at the Butchers, giving them 65 points going into the final game. Against Worcester.
Hinckley will get beat at Kettering on Saturday, will beat Lancaster and will do well to return with a point from a trip to Barrow, and will get beat at home by Hyde. That will give them 64 points going into the final game away at Blyth.
Hyde will beat Alfreton and Hinckley, giving them 65 points (and a goal difference of at least +19) going into their final game. At home to Droylsden.
Blyth will pick up two wins and a draw from games against Vauxhall Motors, Gainsbourough and Lancaster, giving them 64 points going into their final game (against Hinckley)
Farsley will pick up six points from games against Lancaster, Workington and Worksop, giving them 65 points going into the final game at home to Redditch.
Doesnt really matter what Moor Green do.
Nuneaton will do well if they return with six points from games at both Leigh and Barrow. But let us assume they do.
This would be the league table going into the final game of the season (all played 41 games)
Kettering, Droylsden, Workington - out of sight - 2 play-off places available
Harrogate 65 pts
Farsley 65 pts
Hyde 65 pts
Hinckley 64 pts
Blyth 64 pts
Worcester 62 pts
Nuneaton 62 pts
Seven teams playing for two spots.
Hyde at home to Droylsden (we would have to rely on Droylsden winning)
Farsley at home to Redditch (we would have to rely on Redditch winning)
Nuneaton at home to Vauxhall Motors (we have to keep our goal difference ahead of Nuneaton over the three games)
Then its between Blyth v Hinckley for one position, and
Harrogate v Worcester for the other.
Doesnt sound unreasonable to me. Especially if Workington or Worksop can stop Farsley getting more than three points from those two games, in which case a final game Redditch draw in Yorkshire would do. Also have to be watchful of Hyde's goal difference. It may be their goal difference that we have to beat, as well as that of Harrogate.
Please don't tell me that is all overly optimistic. Its a league where anyone can beat anyone. If anything, I've been generous to the other rival sides.
Just have to make sure that the 'anyones' of Worksop and Hucknall dont beat us!
My feeling is that Blyth and Farsley will replace Hinckley and Harrogate in the final five and that we may well lose out to Farsley by one point on the last day, despite three wins.
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Post by smog on Apr 12, 2007 10:58:20 GMT
kings lynn is a possibility to but with their proximity to the number of clubs in the southeast they may well prefer to go to the conference south and we could probably put up a case to stay in the north on the grounds of proximity too, especially if stafford and tamworth go ucome down. of course if kettering dont get promoted they may well prefer to go into the conference south next season too.
you re right that there are still a lot of possibilities andy, but a lot less than there were at the start of the season and most of them have been spurned. even if by some miracle we did reach they play offs we re unlikely to have a full strength team.
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Post by smog on Apr 12, 2007 11:01:21 GMT
we certainly deserve some luck at harrogate after the battering their posts and bar have received over the last two seasons! i wish i could be there to see it.
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Post by DrAgony on Apr 12, 2007 12:03:46 GMT
I don't think you're being overly optimistic, Andy - I think you're a supporter doing what a supporter is meant to do.
Obviously there are a lot of "what ifs". But Smog took the words right out of my keyboard when he said there are a lot less than at the start of the season.
C'mon guys, don't give up! If only for the entertainment value, though a real fight to the finish won't do anyone's reputation any harm.
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Post by B*ue dragonstander on Apr 12, 2007 12:04:04 GMT
We can do no more than win on Saturday and see where we are although it will be far from easy against a team not safe from the "drop". I don't think we will be in for a carefree football feast - especially as I WILL be there this week!
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Post by andy on Apr 12, 2007 12:53:06 GMT
I have no dispute whatsoever with the case that there have been opportunities earlier in the season. Yes, of course. But cant do owt about that now.
I have absolutely no problem with Thommo going to the US - the timing dictates it must happen now - but to read in that that article that he is going from City now that the play-offs are gone is worrying me if that is a view pervading the Club. They are not, but will be if that is an attitutude taken into Saturday.
Yep, regarding players, I also accept that it is becoming tight. Lets not forget that Rapinder is on loan at Bromsgrove and that Cornes is on loan at AFC Telford. If Coatesy's loan arrangements mean he is available I would prefer to see him named on the bench - you never know what might happen with Danny.
If Justin has indeed played his last game, I would like to see a statement from the Club that clarifies Rapinder's loan situation at Rovers.
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Post by DrAgony on Apr 12, 2007 13:02:03 GMT
A word so perfectly apt you could have invented it for this situation  (I also seem to have misread Smog's comment about possibilities above - I thought he was being positive!) |
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Post by kirstyfan on Apr 12, 2007 13:03:03 GMT
Oh Andy, how I admire your optimistic view.
Keep going to the very end is true and fair comment but realistically I have more chance of pulling Catherine Zeta Jones than all the teams between us and fifth place slipping up and City winning all the three remaining games.
It really shouldn't have come to clutching at straws with the squad of players at City, we should safely have been in the top five at this stage. I'm afraid that this season the team have shot themselves in the foot too many times. We had opponents on the ropes so many times this season and allowed them back into the game.
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Post by DrAgony on Apr 12, 2007 13:08:09 GMT
Oh Andy, how I admire your optimistic view. Keep going to the very end is true and fair comment but realistically I have more chance of pulling Catherine Zeta Jones than all the teams between us and fifth place slipping up and City winning all the three remaining games. It really shouldn't have come to clutching at straws with the squad of players at City, we should safely have been in the top five at this stage. I'm afraid that this season the team have shot themselves in the foot too many times. We had opponents on the ropes so many times this season and allowed them back into the game. If we do get to the play-offs I think Michael Douglas would be wise to check the terms in their pre-nup ;D |
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Post by gobby cow on Apr 12, 2007 13:11:37 GMT
I do not understand why some people are clinging on the the hope that city will reach the play offs, the lack lustre performance on saturday proves the lads have as good as given up on this season.
I certainly have. I can find better things to do than watch 2 players playing football and the rest have a kickabout!
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Post by kirstyfan on Apr 12, 2007 13:27:04 GMT
GC, although I do not share Andy's optimistic view, I can understand why people do still cling to the hope that we can make the play-offs.
Until it becomes mathmatically impossible there is nothing wrong in holding the view we can do it. There is nothing wrong in the "never say die" attitude.
Realistically it is very probable that we ain't going to make the play-offs but stranger things have happened and there is more chance of a top five finish that there is of my phone ringing and Catherine being on the other end telling me Michael is a bastard and can I go and rescue her.
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Post by andy on Apr 12, 2007 13:37:49 GMT
Football is for entertainment. Cant see any point in being unduly negative.
If I wanted to be negative, I'd commission myself a special range of 'Opus Dei' - themed WCFC supporters ware, including a blue and white hair shirt to be worn when I wasnt happy with what was going on, a chain with embossed badges of players I thought were at fault to tornequet my leg with and a whip for my back to be used during the last five minutes of games when the manager made a playing decision I didnt think was right.
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Post by tim on Apr 12, 2007 13:45:57 GMT
It could happen. It won't though, for the very reasons we are still having to cling to faint hopes of the play-offs rather than having cemented a place already. City would need to win three more games and hope that other results go our way.
If City had been able to string together a few batches of three or four consecutive wins during the earlier part of the season, maybe we would have stood a chance. They couldn't, so why would they start now?
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Post by DrAgony on Apr 12, 2007 13:48:32 GMT
GC, although I do not share Andy's optimistic view, I can understand why people do still cling to the hope that we can make the play-offs. Until it becomes mathmatically impossible there is nothing wrong in holding the view we can do it. There is nothing wrong in the "never say die" attitude. Realistically it is very probable that we ain't going to make the play-offs but stranger things have happened and there is more chance of a top five finish that there is of my phone ringing and Catherine being on the other end telling me Michael is a bastard and can I go and rescue her. Just heard on the news that Michael has taken out a restraining order preventing your Catherine from contacting you! Jealous bastard, must be Harrogate fan |
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Post by andy on Apr 12, 2007 13:51:33 GMT
"They couldn't, so why would they start now? "
Fair question, Tim, but the past isn't always a clue to the future.
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Post by smog on Apr 12, 2007 14:06:15 GMT
"football is for entertainment. cant see the point in being unduly negative." therein lies your answer andy. we ve more than matched the likes of kettering, droylesden, workington, blyth, hinkley this season but we ve also more than matched leigh, farsley, stalybridge, moor green etc etc in a lack of ambition.
nice one, i m particularly interested in the hair shirt when they become available. i might nip over to jerusalem, get my photo taken in it on the way of sorrows! talking of which mazey hasnt given me a thorough scourging for a while!! i ll be at the last 2 home games still hoping even though i know!
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Post by gobby cow on Apr 12, 2007 14:36:51 GMT
I have to admit I have rather lost interest this season. I was full of enthusiasm at the start of the season. I am looking forward to seeing Pat on Monday and that is the season over for me. Even Jock leaving has not shaken my apathy.
Mr T will probably hope I stay disillusioned so he can have a quiet afternoon at the footie next season!
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Post by LeedsWCFC on Apr 14, 2007 1:27:38 GMT
Andy's prognosis provides a very feasible outcome. I see it very similarly so here is my update of my original post in this thread:
If City manage to win the three remaining matches and if Nuneaton Borough manage the same but without getting a better goal difference than City finish with then we need four of the following scenarios to occur to let us into the play-offs.
Workington need to lose all their games against Gainsborough Trinity (H), Farsley Celtic (A), Droylsden (H) and Lancaster City (H). Even with my hopeful outlook I can’t see this happening and we probably will want them to beat Farsley anyway.
Harrogate Town need to drop 7 points and have their goal difference significantly reduced in games against Barrow (H), Droylsden (A) and Worcester City (H). One victory will mean they cannot be caught by City. The game against us would be a “must win” for us if things got that far. I would expect the Bloods to win their game but a draw would be good enough providing the Bluebirds avoid defeat.
Hinckley United need to drop 10 points in games against Kettering Town (H), Barrow (A), Hyde United (H), Lancaster City (H) and Blyth Spartans (A). For them to do that we would need the Knitters to drop points against Hyde, Blyth, or both of them and if they did it would make those teams very much more difficult to catch so maybe we really need Hinckley to do well and in so doing help us out.
Hyde United need to drop 3 points and have their goal difference significantly reduced in games against Alfreton Town (H), Hinckley United (A) and Droylsden (H). The last two look like particularly tricky games and which could both be Tigers’ defeats. If they lose only one game it would need to be by a few goals unless City manage better-enough winning margins.
Farsley Celtic need to drop 6 points in games against Lancaster City (A), Worksop Town (H), Workington (H) and Redditch United (A). Workington will probably be out of the title race by the time the teams meet but might still be good enough to win. Worksop and Redditch should still be striving to avoid relegation so should provide difficult opponents. Many have said that the Dolly Blues will surprise someone before the season ends: yes, please!
Blyth Spartans need to drop 4 points in games against Vauxhall Motors (H), Gainsborough Trinity (A), Lancaster City (A) and Hinckley United (H). Can the Dolly Blues do it twice let alone once? No, I don’t think so either so that means the Spartans winning no more than one of the other games. Which one?
City winning the last three matches can probably be seen as the most unlikely of the requirements to be met but the team is capable of doing so despite having put together a run of three league wins just once previously this season. As things stand City can reach the play-offs but will this still be the case after today’s games?
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