One in twenty chance of making the play offs

[darrellbutler]

Assuming that there is an even chance of a win, lose or draw in every game (i.e. 1/3 chance of each), these are the chances of each team finishing fifth:

Farsley 39/81 = 13/27 = Approx 48%
Harrogate 22/81 = Approx 27%
Blyth 12/81 = 4/27 = Approx 15%
Hyde 4/81 = Approx 5%
Worcester 4/81 = Approx 5%

Is 66/1 still available?

[jp]

But if we win against Harrogate, doesnt that lessen their chances of getting a win also??

[darrellbutler]

That's been taken into account.

[jp]

How about if Harrogate beat Worcester?

[darrellbutler]

what about it?

[andy]

Can you look at it this way, Darrell.

City have to win. Am confident they will. So lets take that out of the probability. What then is the probability of the other three results working in our favour?

[darrellbutler]

Assuming Harrogate lose to Worcester, also assuming that if Hyde win their goal difference will remain superior;

Farsley 15/27 = 5/9 = Approx 55.5%
Blyth 6/27 = 2/9 = Approx 22%
Worcester = 4/27 = Approx 15%
Hyde = 2/27 = Approx 7.5%
Harrogate = Unable to make play offs = 0%

[darrellbutler]

Interesting that although Farsley lead the group they cannot make the play offs if they lose.

[andy]

Correct. Hinckley should secure their place tonight against Lancaster. We've gone from a situation in which all three of our rivals on Saturday would have been playing against sides with something still to play for to a situation in which none of them are. Would have preferred it as it was.

I also reckon that there is about a 20% chance of City playing in CS next season (if only Halesowen make the SLP play-offs) and around 40% if Kings Lynn are considered northern ahead of Worcester.

[darrellbutler]

Here's hoping that Hinckley would prefer to finish 3rd and have the second leg at home! However they may prefer to have the first leg at home and not travel to Workington on a wednesday night!

[andy]

Thinking about it, there is an incentive for Droylsden to beat Hyde. Tameside Council have said they will direct all of their 100K sponsorship to the team in the top flight. This year it has been shared among three. Droylsden wouldnt want to see Hyde get a share of that cake by joining them in the Conference.

[andy]

I'be be disapponted as a Hinckley fan if the play-off game included a trip to Workington on any day of the week!

[jp]

darrellbutler said:

what about it?

Well then Worcester won't have an equal chance of winning, or drawing for that matter.

[darrellbutler]

Not too sure, I wouldn't mind going anywhere on a Saturday, it's midweek games that I and most others find problematic.

[jp]

darrellbutler said:

assuming Harrogate lose to Worcester, also assuming that if Hyde win their goal difference will remain superior;

Farsley 15/27 = 5/9 = Approx 55.5%
Blyth 6/27 = 2/9 = Approx 22%
Worcester = 4/27 = Approx 15%
Hyde = 2/27 = Approx 7.5%
Harrogate = Unable to make play offs = 0%

How about if Hydes goal difference does not remain superior?

[andy]

5/27 = approx 19%.

[darrellbutler]

jp said:

darrellbutler said:

what about it?

Well then Worcester won't have an equal chance of winning, or drawing for that matter.

Yes, and like I said, that game has been taken into account.

1/3 chance of Harrogate win, 1/3 chance draw 1/3 chance Worcester win.

[darrellbutler]

jp said:

darrellbutler said:

assuming Harrogate lose to Worcester, also assuming that if Hyde win their goal difference will remain superior;

Farsley 15/27 = 5/9 = Approx 55.5%
Blyth 6/27 = 2/9 = Approx 22%
Worcester = 4/27 = Approx 15%
Hyde = 2/27 = Approx 7.5%
Harrogate = Unable to make play offs = 0%

How about if Hydes goal difference does not remain superior?

They we don't need to worry about them.

[jp]

darrellbutler said:

jp said:

Well then Worcester won't have an equal chance of winning, or drawing for that matter.

Yes, and like I said, that game has been taken into account.

1/3 chance of Harrogate win, 1/3 chance draw 1/3 chance Worcester win.

Are you assuming all teams are of equal ability, and that home advantage won't be taken into consideration? Surely the chances of a home win for any club are more than an away win for any club?

[darrellbutler]

I am. If there was a huge difference in the ability of the teams there'd be more than three points between us all, so any difference in ability is negligible.

Last year I recall you saying that home advantage meant nothing in the play offs.

[jp]

Theres more than 3 points between Redditch and Farsley. Theres a huge difference in the ability of the teams the conteders are playing. I'd say that there is more chance of a Farsley win in that game than a Redditch win, although the draw is probably the most likely result.

In a two-legged play off game home advantage in the first leg means nothing. In a straight game between two sides, home advantage means a lot obviously, and Harrogate have the best home record in the league.

I think you'd have to factor form into things as well. Worcester are presently 2nd in the form guide over 6 games, Harrogate are 17th. Farsley Blyth and Hyde are all up there too.

There are far too many factors to call. Saturday 4.45 is all that matters.

[andy]

Darrell is just doing a straight-forward probability analysis. Its not a multivariate or deterministic model.

[darrellbutler]

jp said:

Theres more than 3 points between Redditch and Farsley. Theres a huge difference in the ability of the teams the conteders are playing. I'd say that there is more chance of a Farsley win in that game than a Redditch win, although the draw is probably the most likely result.

In a two-legged play off game home advantage in the first leg means nothing. In a straight game between two sides, home advantage means a lot obviously, and Harrogate have the best home record in the league.

I think you'd have to factor form into things as well. Worcester are presently 2nd in the form guide over 6 games, Harrogate are 17th. Farsley Blyth and Hyde are all up there too.

There are far too many factors to call. Saturday 4.45 is all that matters.

I agree totally, it was only meant to be a guide. At the end of the day we win, then hope.
Whenever you model real life situations in mathematics or statistics they can never take every factor into account!