Are the play-offs reachable?

[adycrean]

Apologies in advance for of all for the ‘statto-ness’ of what is to follow – but I was interested in what I read on Stockport’s forum (members3.boardhost.com/marionsboard/thread/1421225041.html) – and wondered what our mathematical chances are of reaching the play offs….


They reckon 72 points is needed – in previous years this has ranged from 64 points up to 78.

We have 34 so far from 22 games (1.55 points per game), and would need 38 from 20 (1.9). So that’s a big stretch, although of course we have played more away games so far than home (13 of the 22).

Our home form so far equates to 2 points per game, away 1.23. so if we maintained same form for rest of season – we would theoretically end up with another 34 points (making 68 overall), so 4 short.

So what does that tell us?? Not a lot really! Other than we need to up our form and results to stand a chance. And if you look at the current table – the top 4 are breaking away a little, and then Chorley will join them if they win games in hand.

Interestingly - our form versus bottom half teams is much better than top half compared to the average (we rank 2nd against bottom half, versus 17th v. top). www.statto.com/football/stats/england/conference-north/2014-2015/versus-top-half/full

[leon]

Issue for me is about changing philosophy from a passing game to a more direct style to suit the conditions. Have we got a squad that can do this or a Management team that are prepared to go this route?

[simon]

The next 3 games will shape the season.After all the excitement of the F A Cup we've stuttered a bit and it's a job to get going again.

If we could get 7 points out of the next 3 games, the playoffs look in reach.

That would be a win at Glos [quite reasonable]
A draw at home against Fylde which is going to be difficult
A win at home against Oxford which is also a reasonable call.

As some of the sides will be playing against each other in the next couple of weeks,it's possible to jump 4 or 5 places in the table.
We've already played the top 4 away ,these being Fylde,Barrow,Guisley and Tamworth.

It's still a tall order but it can be done.


It's a tall order but it can be done.

[crosscountrymark]

A play off place is possible if we can put in a unbeaten run together and start picking up points. We need to get back to basics, starting with the defence with a new right back in Kyle Haynes new to the side, and who replaces Tyler Weir at left back ?, maybe Connor Gudger/ Ellis deeney. The midfield is pretty settled, but I prefer the physical presence of Connor Gater in the side, when taken off against Bradford p a, we seem to lose the shape in midfield and cost us dearly. The attack is a big problem area, with Mike Symonds only scoring Four goals all season in league and cup games, in my opinion he gives 100% and holds the ball up well and creates chances for other, but his goal tally is not good enough. Our top scorer is Sean Geddes with ten goals and has improved us as a side, but of late has played a deeper role in midfield and not getting in the box to snap up the chance created by Symmo. Daniel Nti has scored nine goals and his form has dipped since the cup run, Nick Wright has hit the target five times, spends most of the time on the bench, with the talented Jordan Murphy returning to Walsall , this gives Tristian Dunkley a chance to get a run in the side on the left wing. A new forward signing would give us a boost and freshen things up in this department. The next two games will be tough with a physical game away at Gloucester and the visit of top of table Fylde will be a game we must get something from.

[Tim Munslow]

For those who read the Non-League Paper I thought last Sunday's edition was really telling. Down the side of the results was a list of "leading" goalscorers: I say that in inverted commas because it went right down to five goals. There was not one single Worcester City player listed!

Until we improve the goals for column we won't be up there.

[leon]

Tim, Daniel Nti should be there as he has scored 6 League goals - 2 pens against Furby, 2 at Harrogate, 1 against Lowestoft and 1 against Boston.

Will just go and hang my Anorak up!

[Tim Munslow]

You should tell the NLP then and have it corrected!

[maybe1day]

In a word No!

[The Verner]

Need a striker who is in form. Or maybe Wright needs to step up and give Symo a rest.

And we need a replacement for tyler while he is out, weve lost our two big assets in Willo and Tyler.....Haynes looks to be a good replacement for Willo but we could do with a LB....maybe a loan from Walsal.

Not forgetting weve lost Murphy...although I think Dunkley will scare the life out of defenders with his pace

[glevumblues]

Unfortunately, we don't have a direct replacement for Symo. Currently there is no-one who can hold the ball up like him and he has to do so much work up front that he is eventually going to burn out. It's up to the other strikers to put away the chances he creates, which they have not been doing in recent weeks. If Nick Wright is the answer to our problems, I don't know what the question is!

Last week, Kyle Haynes seemed to give us more attacking options up the right wing but Tyler will be seriously missed on the left. On paper, the Gloucester game should be a chance to push on, but we have a habit of outplaying them and then losing!

[simples]

Jan 18, 2015 12:00:02 GMT glevumblues said:

If Nick Wright is the answer to our problems, I don't know what the question is!

Made me chuckle.

[crosscountrymark]

After a very poor Christmas and new year period we only managed to pick up one point out of a possible 12 , and could of been worst with the Hednesford game being called off with us 3 nil down. It seems the club is playing things carefully on the financial front, is it worth splashing the cash on two decent signing, a striker and a experienced physical midfielder or do we stick to our current budget and hope Carl Heeley can turn things around. My main worry is if we do nothing and things do not improve on the pitch , we could easy be dragged into a relegation battle and lose our current Conference North status. How we are currently playing is like watching the side around twelve months ago , when Carl had to bring in Jamie Grimes, Arron Brown and later Wayne Thomas to steady the ship, the same thing is needed again to address our shortfalls across the pitch. I would personally move some of the under performing players on, like Nick Wright who has been a awful signing , lacks fitness, desire , motivation and his body language says it all , for a player who has played at conference premier level he has not performed for us, and bring in new players who are motivated to play for the club. Without George Williams, Tyler and Jordan Murphy , we have lost a lot of the drive in the side going forward, with our midfield sitting deep our forwards get isolated, and with a few of our players low in confidence/loss of form is compounding the problem. I hope Sean Geddes can get back on track on Saturday with a goal, and hope his place on the bench on sunday , wasn't that he is being made a scapegoat for the sides drop in form, as he is our top scorer and we need him in areas he can score in and not playing so deep in midfield. Well this is my opinion and hope we get some replies on a very quiet banter board. Best of luck on Saturday to Carl and the players.

[leon]

The impact of Aaron Brown at this time last year was key, and as he was a defender by trade would it not be interesting to see Tommo play up front?
Do we know how good Tristan Dunkley is? I have not seen him start a game as he only comes on for about 10 minutes and does not get a decent pass. Is that down to him not showing enough for the management team and so might benefit from game time on loan?
Connor Gudger was signed as an attacking full back and yet does not deputise for Tyler.
Symmo needs crosses to the far post to attack as this is his strength but spends a lot of time working his a**e off outside the penalty box, without another striker playing alongside him.
January has always been a pivotal month for City. They were going well the other season until the over excited talk of POs led to 2 points from 6 games and a finish of 7th place, so we are used to being here. Usually with City it is all or nothing in relation to good and bad runs of form.

[Tim Munslow]

Well, you must be psychic leon, 'cos according to City's website we have just re-signed Aaron Brown! He goes straight into the squad for Saturday. It also says we hope to sign another forward, but not in time for Saturday.

[simples]

Jan 22, 2015 20:11:21 GMT leon said:

The impact of Aaron Brown at this time last year was key, and as he was a defender by trade would it not be interesting to see Tommo play up front?

Agree, this time last year Brown's presence galvanised the spine of the team. Certainly for the first couple of months he stood out both as player and leader. If has re signed more of the same please.

[worcsbaggie]

Jan 22, 2015 16:54:46 GMT crosscountrymark said:

After a very poor Christmas and new year period we only managed to pick up one point out of a possible 12 , and could of been worst with the Hednesford game being called off with us 3 nil down. It seems the club is playing things carefully on the financial front, is it worth splashing the cash on two decent signing, a striker and a experienced physical midfielder or do we stick to our current budget and hope Carl Heeley can turn things around. My main worry is if we do nothing and things do not improve on the pitch , we could easy be dragged into a relegation battle and lose our current Conference North status. How we are currently playing is like watching the side around twelve months ago , when Carl had to bring in Jamie Grimes, Arron Brown and later Wayne Thomas to steady the ship, the same thing is needed again to address our shortfalls across the pitch. I would personally move some of the under performing players on, like Nick Wright who has been a awful signing , lacks fitness, desire , motivation and his body language says it all , for a player who has played at conference premier level he has not performed for us, and bring in new players who are motivated to play for the club. Without George Williams, Tyler and Jordan Murphy , we have lost a lot of the drive in the side going forward, with our midfield sitting deep our forwards get isolated, and with a few of our players low in confidence/loss of form is compounding the problem. I hope Sean Geddes can get back on track on Saturday with a goal, and hope his place on the bench on sunday , wasn't that he is being made a scapegoat for the sides drop in form, as he is our top scorer and we need him in areas he can score in and not playing so deep in midfield. Well this is my opinion and hope we get some replies on a very quiet banter board. Best of luck on Saturday to Carl and the players.

What a brilliant thread and well put, couldn't have said it better myself.

[Dodger]

The play offs are a possibility still. Get the recent blip behind us and you never know but more of a 'long term' question might be whether we would actually want promotion?

We must have done reasonably well this season financially wise (with cup runs and the selling of players - probably as a result of that cup exposure) but what would the finances be like without those boosts?

Assuming staying at Soggborough next season, would city survive in the conference on gates of 300 or 400 for a more than likely Tuesday night re-scheduled fixture?

No doubt any retained players would want more ';readies' whilst to bolster the side to survive would involve dipping into the good old transfer market.

Dodger.