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Post by villager on Nov 1, 2007 7:56:39 GMT
City win the Conf South at Weston and party on the beach (mud). Hurrah! That league looks very weak to me. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2007 9:07:31 GMT
Kempster's map is a joy to behold.
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Post by colinlayland on Nov 1, 2007 9:15:39 GMT
Its how Burton got into the Ccnference a few years back,they went into the what was thought to be the weak Northern Premier League in those days,compared to the Southern League.
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Post by LeedsWCFC on Nov 1, 2007 11:48:58 GMT
Kempster's map is a joy to behold. Oh no, it isn't!  |
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Post by tim on Nov 1, 2007 11:50:44 GMT
Oh yes it is!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2007 11:56:54 GMT
I can almost walk to 4 grounds!
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Post by B*ue dragonstander on Nov 1, 2007 13:13:43 GMT
You've hit the nail on the head, Dave. Personally, I think it is 30:70 we will be playing in CS next year. We have to replace five Clubs. We're going to need a bigger squad to do that and we'll have to play some of our games at Perdiswell? ( I mean more players rather than everyone on the Moore diet for 3 months ..) |
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niels
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Post by niels on Nov 1, 2007 13:23:32 GMT
I can almost walk to 4 grounds! What about back grounds? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2007 13:47:14 GMT
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Post by ctod1959 on Nov 1, 2007 15:31:34 GMT
Pretty certain we've never played Team Bath or Thurrock before. What about Staines, Eastleigh and Braintree?
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Post by LeedsWCFC on Nov 1, 2007 15:52:27 GMT
Pretty certain we've never played Team Bath or Thurrock before. What about Staines, Eastleigh and Braintree? Not played any of them as far as I know - Maidenhead United too. I'm happy to wait a few years before we do play them in the Cup or Trophy. There are plenty of teams up here City haven't played yet: Fleetwood Town, Witton Albion etc. |
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Post by andy on Nov 1, 2007 18:41:11 GMT
I'm sure that Darrell will correct me if I'm wrong on this, but the chances of us playing in the CS next season are based on the combined probability of five factors (for which I have indicated preliminary probabilities for each independently)
a) The probability that we are not promoted or relegated from CN (0.95)
b) The probability that four northern teams are relegated from the Conference (0.95 on current positions, assuming no southern Clubs go into administration and are relegated in lieu of those finishing in the bottom four places)
c) The probability that two teams will be promoted from the Unibond Premier rather than one or none (ie no administrative rows, ground eligibility etc): 0.95
d) The probability that Kettering are not promoted or relegated from CN (0.8)
e) The probability that one 'northern' side are promoted from the Southern Premier (eg Kings Lynn) (0.2)
Each of these are independent events and all must take place, meaning that the combined probability is multiplicative ie
0.95*0.95*0.95*0.8*0.2
So, I calculate the probability to be around 15%. Or, expressed another way, 1 in 6, 1 in 7.
That assumes that if Kettering were in the CN at the end of the season, they would go south before we do.
It also assumes that if a Southern League side came up, like Kings Lynn, they would be granted northern status ahead of us. This I doubt would happen if City really didnt want it to, and therefore the actual probability is possibly less than 15%. However, I reckon City might judge themselves to be better off outside of a league containing Alty, Droylsden, Stafford, Northwich, Southport, Kettering, Boston, Tamworth etc.
If Kettering are promoted (or relegated) the probability is 0.95*0.95*0.95 = at least 0.85. That probability would also apply were City to actually contest and win ahead of Kettering the option to go south.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2007 18:58:29 GMT
Just let me dream of being in CS a while longer.
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Post by ctod1959 on Nov 1, 2007 19:32:11 GMT
And just let me dream of having Andy's statistical acumen. (I wonder what the probability of winning the November Teambuilder jackpot is?!!)
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Post by andy on Nov 1, 2007 23:21:49 GMT
I think my statistical acumen is wrong. But I need a bit longer to think about it!
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Post by darrellbutler on Nov 2, 2007 1:39:20 GMT
I'm sure that Darrell will correct me if I'm wrong on this, but the chances of us playing in the CS next season are based on the combined probability of five factors (for which I have indicated preliminary probabilities for each independently) a) The probability that we are not promoted or relegated from CN (0.95) b) The probability that four northern teams are relegated from the Conference (0.95 on current positions, assuming no southern Clubs go into administration and are relegated in lieu of those finishing in the bottom four places) c) The probability that two teams will be promoted from the Unibond Premier rather than one or none (ie no administrative rows, ground eligibility etc): 0.95 d) The probability that Kettering are not promoted or relegated from CN (0.8) e) The probability that one 'northern' side are promoted from the Southern Premier (eg Kings Lynn) (0.2) Each of these are independent events and all must take place, meaning that the combined probability is multiplicative ie 0.95*0.95*0.95*0.8*0.2 So, I calculate the probability to be around 15%. Or, expressed another way, 1 in 6, 1 in 7. If four conference sides are relegated into the North that would mean the BSN is getting 6 extra sides as oppose to the BSS's 4 (assuming the 2 Southern League sides are going into the BSS) Therefore, point (e) above is not required for at least one side to move South. If Kettering are not at step two, that side will be us. Therefore, the 15% above must be added to the probability that Kettering ARE promoted, ie 0.95^3 * 0.2 (In this case point (e) becomes irrelevent) Which is around 17% - giving a total of 32%ish. 1/3. |
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wh
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Post by wh on Nov 2, 2007 10:41:49 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2007 11:21:07 GMT
And well responded to by Neils and Andy. Andy nailed him on every point. What is Guy's prioblem?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2007 11:40:24 GMT
Andy's second point
2. What is wrong with an operating debt when the Club is massively in credit, asset-wise?
Is very very valid, hence my suggestion that we revalue the land, and increase the operating debt to build a team capable of promotion.
What is Guy's problem? well its getting very confused. I thought his argument was related to land use - which could be a valid argument, however, WCFC's performance and finances have nothing whatsoever to do with land use. He is simply anti-WCFC, nothing more, nothing less. A man aggreived by something, its personal and has nothing to do with any other arguments. He's shown his hand, and he isn't going to be a major obstacle at all. There will be far better objector groups than Mr Guy.
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Post by darrellbutler on Nov 2, 2007 11:53:41 GMT
He is providing nothing more than light entertainment.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2007 15:32:08 GMT
totally agree Darrell, he's becoming quite amusing.
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Post by Tim Munslow on Nov 2, 2007 18:23:58 GMT
Even the City's Chairman seems to be accepting we move South next season according to articles in the Worcester News.
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Post by alwaysnextyear on Nov 2, 2007 23:02:36 GMT
Looks like the northern based signing policy could present a big problem then. Time to start gradually whittling down the squad I imagine. Might be a good time to start selling revolving doors.
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