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Post by Tim Munslow on Feb 4, 2008 19:07:56 GMT
With the campaign hotting up and "Super Tuesday" due tomorrow does everyone, like me, hope and pray we get a better incumbent than the present buffoon?
Personally I think it is high time we distanced ourselves from the USA; their foreign policy is dangerous for the whole world and we don't want to be dragged into another conflict like Iraq or Afghanistan. Makes me sick when I read of low public sector pay rises and the health service in crisis, and then in the next breath how many billions those two wars are costing us. Charity begins at home.
I hope they elect Barack Obama in November.
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Post by ac on Feb 4, 2008 19:27:24 GMT
I want Chuck Norris (or the bloke that he's backing) he would solve the world's peace problems with one roundhouse kick.
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Post by dorothy on Feb 4, 2008 19:29:04 GMT
None of the above.
Rather like the Superbowl it goes on for far too long and costs an obscene amount of money.
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Post by StopfordianWCFC on Feb 4, 2008 20:45:31 GMT
With the campaign hotting up and "Super Tuesday" due tomorrow does everyone, like me, hope and pray we get a better incumbent than the present buffoon? Personally I think it is high time we distanced ourselves from the USA; their foreign policy is dangerous for the whole world and we don't want to be dragged into another conflict like Iraq or Afghanistan. Makes me sick when I read of low public sector pay rises and the health service in crisis, and then in the next breath how many billions those two wars are costing us. Charity begins at home. I hope they elect Barack Obama in November. Nice to see he has picked up on the potential floating voters of the Brookside and started advertising on this forum! The US is about as stupid a voting system as our own, in fact more so. How else can somone who got less votes across the country in a two horse race still win the election! Crazy!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2008 23:30:19 GMT
I watched Michael Moore's "Sicko" the other day. American values are bankrupt.
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Post by creaner on Feb 5, 2008 7:43:07 GMT
Josiah Bartlett for me.
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Post by gobby cow on Feb 5, 2008 10:18:58 GMT
Is it your fault Tim that I have a Vote Barak Obama advert on my message board!
Nuke the lot of them I say, I have no time for them, totally shallow the lot of them
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bigdave
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adventure is worthwhile
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Post by bigdave on Feb 5, 2008 12:41:19 GMT
whoever wins it, has to be better than the outgoing clown, personally, i don't give a sh1t, our govenment will still bow down to lick their boots! i'm sick of seeing it every time i put sky news on making a fuss of it, would the yanks make as much fuss about our elections? I THINK NOT!!!!!!!!! as gobby said; nuke the lot of em!
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Post by Croc on Feb 5, 2008 13:47:18 GMT
here's all the weekend numbers in one long post. the averages are only for polls released 2/2 or later. I've left out the names of the pollsters and kept the raw numbers
C = Clinton, O = Obama
Tennessee: c 36 o 31 c 49 o 35 c 55 o 35 average: c 47 o 34 undecided: 19 clinton + 13
clinton should carry the state
California: c 36 o 34 c 45 o 36 c 41 o 45 c 44 o 45 c 40 o 46 c 39 o 40 average: c 41 o 41 undecided: 18 tied
clinton should carry the state
New Jersey: c 43 o 43 c 40 o 39 c 50 o 36 c 43 o 42 c 47 o 41 c 48 o 43 average: c 45 o 41 undecided: 14 clinton + 4
clinton should carry the state
Arizona: c 43 o 41 c 45 o 39 average: c: 44 o 40 undecided: 16 clinton + 4
clinton should carry the state
Utah: c 29 o 53 average: c 29 o 53 undecided: 18 obama + 24
obama should carry the state
Missouri: c 47 o 41 c 44 o 43 c 42 o 47 average: c 44 o 44 undecided: 12 tied
clinton should carry the state
Illinois: o 55 c 24 average o 55 c 24 undecided: 21 obama + 29
obama should carry the state
Oklahoma: c 41 o 17 average: c 41 o 17 undecided: 42 clinton + 24
clinton should carry the state
Alabama: c 46 o 41 average: c 46 o 41 undecided: 13 clinton + 5
clinton should carry the state
Georgia: c 31 o 48 c 41 o 46 c 28 o 48 c 36 o 51 c 37 o 52 c 27 o 49 average: c 33 o 49 undecided: 18 obama + 16
obama should carry this state
New York: c 54 o 38 c 51 o 30 c 53 o 39 average: c 53 o 36 undecided: 11 clinton + 17
clinton should carry this state
Massachusetts: c 44 o 46 average: c 44 o 46 undecided: 10 obama + 2
clinton should carry this state
races not polled and my estimate on advantages:
alaska - advantage obama arkansas - advantage clinton colorado - advantage obama connecticut - draw delaware - advantage obama idaho - advantage obama kansas - advantage obama minnesota - advantage clinton new mexico - advantage clinton north dakota - advantage obama
btw: the presidential poll aggregates out to c 44 o 43 with 13 undecided and clinton + 1. I rate this as still advantage clinton
And can those who don't really want to discuss it but post stupid comments about Nuking people please toddle off to other threads thanks - leave those who actually take an interest in these things to shoot the breeze...
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Post by Croc on Feb 5, 2008 13:55:48 GMT
Projections show that a candidate needs about 2,000 delegates from the Primaries to win the outright nomination for progression to the Main Elections:
of the states above, based on raw estimates and not district and precinct math, I come up with roughly
13 states for clinton 9 states for obama
832 delegates for clinton 802 delegates for obama
add the numbers I spitballed for the unpolled states (very difficult to figure out since half of them are caucuses)
and the total is
1046 delegates for clinton 1018 delegates for obama
clinton + 28 delegates
since around iowa they've called a 80-120 delegate gap for obama, I would say this is good news. especially considering he's far better at retail politics and will be able to go back to a campaign that suits his style.
I don't know if/how this will affect the race for superdelegates (who can switch their nominations at any point).
(this also doesn't include the democrats abroad or american samoa)
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Post by Croc on Feb 5, 2008 13:59:07 GMT
Reports I've read just now - Obama leads Clinton by 12 points in California according to a CNN/Zogby/BBQ/Reuters/Sheinhardt Wig Company poll.
One of the projected "too close to call" states looks like it's swinging Obama's way.
Very interesting...
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Post by gobby cow on Feb 5, 2008 14:01:55 GMT
mmmmmmmmm that is seriously sad. I thought Andy and his wii was the epitome of sadness but I take that back now.
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Post by Croc on Feb 5, 2008 14:09:58 GMT
as i said before - if you don't wish to contribute in any useful way - then don't be wasting my bandwidth with comments like the above.
You're quite welcome to stay in your insular little hovel, getting excited about some footballer's legs and wondering if that big flaming ball in the sky will come back the next day - some of us are actually following this type of thing that WILL have an effect on world events over the next few years - to paraphrase the well-known saying "When America sneezes - the rest of the world catches a cold"
Or I could simply start deleting such stuff - doesn't bother me either way.
All I can surmise is between some people in this thread and the one on the press coverage a couple of days ago - this place has noticeably gone downhill.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2008 14:38:44 GMT
I fear for Obama. Having seen two Kennedys; Martin Luther King et al gunned down I just pray it doesn't happen again.
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Post by LeedsWCFC on Feb 5, 2008 15:57:23 GMT
Is it your fault Tim that I have a Vote Barak Obama advert on my message board! Nuke the lot of them I say, I have no time for them, totally shallow the lot of them Thanks! That stupid comment has probably got us all now under CIA surveillance.
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Post by Tim Munslow on Feb 5, 2008 18:13:23 GMT
Talking about nuking people is exactly the same talk as red-neck America - and God help us if anyone representative of that fraternity gets into office.
Hang on a minute! Isn't that exactly what we've got now?
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Post by Croc on Feb 5, 2008 18:22:18 GMT
Tim - let's just hope Iran doesn't annoy old Georgie Boy before he leaves office - then some people may actually get their wish...
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Post by Tim Munslow on Feb 5, 2008 18:25:08 GMT
That's exactly what scares me - just that kind of mindset is a handicap in reaching rational decisions. We want world peace, not nuclear bombs or wars.
Incidentally, whilst it may have appeared that because I posted on this subject I understand the American electoral system, I haven't a clue what all these primaries and caucuses (what's the difference please?) are actually all about.
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Post by Croc on Feb 5, 2008 20:17:58 GMT
In simple terms - a Caucus is when the grassroots members of the parties get together in a meeting and decide amongst themselves who they will back as a candidate. Primaries are a straight vote-off (as in a traditional election scenario).
Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.
Both systems send a number of "delegates" to the National Conventions held in August/September - there they will carry out the "will of the Primaries" and select which candidate goes forward to the US Presidential Elections in November.
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Post by gobby cow on Feb 6, 2008 8:43:58 GMT
I know all that already, I dont need to hear about it 24/7 until November. When they have finally chosen which millionaire is to be the democrat and republican candidates, wake me up. A bleeding chimp is better than George W Bush.
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Post by Croc on Feb 6, 2008 8:45:43 GMT
MSNBC's Chuck Todd estimates that Obama and Clinton's delegate counts from tonight will be basically split exactly down the middle. If that is what happens (we won't know the real numbers until tomorrow) it's a huge, huge win for Obama, considering that people were talking about keeping the delegate deficit under 100 as a win. He also won the states 13-8, with New Mexico still undecided.
Obama, at the moment, seems better positioned to win a war of attrition. He brought in significantly more money than Clinton in January, and if he keeps that up, he can really press his momentum.
Hillary's pollster said earlier Tuesday that Hillary wanted to debate Obama as much as possible going forward, going so far as to say that they wanted to debate once a week. One of the pundits speculated that she's looking to get free air time because she doesn't have the money to get on often otherwise.
Not a brilliant night, but you have to be happy with it if you're for Obama. His speech was fantastic, by the way.
Bankruptcy of the Clinton strategy is showing tonight. If you only focus on the 'big' states, you lose everything else.
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Post by gobby cow on Feb 6, 2008 8:58:34 GMT
Boo boy why are you so interested in american politics? That is a serious question
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Post by Croc on Feb 6, 2008 9:13:48 GMT
I like to keep abreast of almost all current affairs - mostly political stuff.
You should see me during the Irish Elections explaining Single Transferable Vote and the Quota System.
Plus I've worked with and speak to a helluva lot of American colleagues regularly - some of whom are heavily involved with campaigning.
Lastly - I love The Daily Show
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Post by Tony is not to despondent now. on Feb 6, 2008 10:08:03 GMT
Thanks 'Notorius Boo Boy'. But I am still in the dark regarding the choosing of candidates for the Presidency in America.
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Post by gobby cow on Feb 6, 2008 11:05:15 GMT
I have never heard of the Daily Show but I applaud you keeping up with current affairs. I am very cynical about politics as the people in power tend to be elected by the minority of the population, or in our case unelected.
I am all in favour of proportional representation, it is much fairer and does away with the need to tactically vote. Sadly I doubt our government will ever allow it as it would most probably result in a hung parliament and another lib-lab pact or even worse.
I shall look forward to you commentary on the single transferable vote and the quota system. I used to be excited by politics when I was a youngster (which I assume you are), as you get older you find they are all selfish, egotists out to better themselves, their families, and the mistresses and rent boys, and the poor man in the street who voted for them is a distant memory.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2008 11:12:01 GMT
Another serious question. Proportional representation has it's merits (and it's down sides) but when a candidate wins a seat because proportionally the party had a certain % of the votes, who decides which constituency he/she is given. Dpoes it mean that some constituencies are then represented by people who didn't win in that area?
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Post by gobby cow on Feb 6, 2008 11:35:24 GMT
That is an excellent point ealing. The candidates are on a list and if I remember correctly for the EU elections they were chosen centrally. It would make sense to go the american way and allow the electorate to chose who is on the list. Each constituency has a list of candidates. Say in H&W we had 7 mps, if the torys got 45% they would have that percentage of 7, etc etc. But it might involve sawing a few people in half.
PR does give a voice in parliament to smaller parters, even though most sane people find their politics offensive they do have a right to exist.
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Post by creaner on Feb 6, 2008 12:26:46 GMT
GC,I recommend The Daily Show (watch for UK comic John Oliver...) and The West Wing on telly to get you in the swing of things. Or maybe Fox News
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Post by gobby cow on Feb 6, 2008 12:52:19 GMT
What channel is it on?
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Post by creaner on Feb 6, 2008 13:16:55 GMT
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