Preece leaves St George's Lane

[B*ue dragonstander]

gobbycow said:

Noone in their right mind would go to Hereford by car as the traffic is such a nightmare. Go by train Andy it is quick and easy and relatively cheap!

Now theres a couple of issues here...

the second is single or return? ;D

[Deleted]

andy said:

Went to Derby the other day from Ledbury. Took me one hour and 20 minutes. 25 minutes of that is getting to Worcester North. Took me over an hour to get into Hereford yesterday.

Make the data say what anyone wants it to say. But it clearly doesnt support any one-sided viewpoint. Time of day has a lot to do with it, most of which will be in the players favour.

And lets just go back a short while and add in Des Lyttle, Justin Thompson, Tom Warmer, Sam Wedgbury, Danny Hodnett, Chris Cornes, Dennis Pearce and Jai Stanley - all locally-based - in place of Leeds-based Liburd, Nottingham-based Nwadike and Manchester-based Barrett.

It all looks like a bit of an urban myth to me.

Yes, maybe it is just an urban myth, however, Andy can I buy your car please? Obviously you are driving the Back to the Future DeLorean!!!
RAC estimate 2 hours, or if you're lucky with traffic 1 hour 47 minutes!!! When I got back to Worcester it took 20 minutes to get from J7 to the Swan roundabout!!!
At the end of the day though my point is more about the choices players have rather than the distance they travel. I believe that a non-league player given a choice of playing part-time locally and part-time a fair distance away will choose the local team unless a) it was worth thier while financially (which isn't the motivator you really want behind players making a decision) or b) they can't find a local team of the same level which is interested in them.
Maybe location has absolutely bugger all to do with things, and players will travel larger distances for the privilege of playing for WCFC, I don't know.

[DrAgony]

If they're good enough, they're close enough.

[dave]

Having been away for a few days, I return to find out that Andy Preece has left the club.

Am I surprised? To be honest yes. I think it was perhaps a little early, but I admire Dave Boddy for having the courage of his convictions to make the change and not letting things go from bad to worse (no doubt a lesson learned from what happended with John Barton's departure which was about 6 months too late).

Fair play to Barty for coming back to help us out in our hour of need. I for one think it is indicative of the man and to have Stanty in the dugout too, can only be a good thing in the short-term.

Long term replacements? I don't know really, although I think that with the possibility of a switch to Blue Square South next season, it would make sense to appoint someone based in the Midlands so we are hedging our bets a bit.

Personally I am not bothered about appointing a "big name," I would rather we found someone with a proven track record in non-league football. That or Martin Jol, I don't mind which.

[Mark]

leedswcfc said:

This is beginning to sound like backstabbing now that he has gone. It might or might not be true but "someone told me" is hardly authoritative, is it?

It's not back stabbing at all. I have no issues with Andy Preece. I am merely passing on something which was said to me a few months back by someone who has shown to me that he seems to have some knowledge of things going on at the club. The same person who told me Mark Owen had been sold (and I posted on this message board) 24hrs before it became widely known.

[Deleted]

"No one in their right mind would go to Hereford". Full stop.

[Deleted]

I hope there really isn't such uncertainty over whether we're going to be in BSN or BSS next year. How can a club plan ahead at all if that's the case? If we were to move south what's stopping us being shipped north again the following year - and so on and so on? Crazy - yet I suspect it's a possibility.

[Deleted]

If we can't plan for either BSN or BSS, how on earth would we manage if we were promoted to the Conference? Didnt the old Southern League stretch from Margate to Grantham, Newport to Kings Lynn?

[dave]

If four "Northern" teams are relegated from Blue Square Premier, then a move South is very much a danger.

If Kettering also gain promotion from our league it will compound the problem. We would then be the most "southern" of the Blue Square North teams.

Our tier (BS North and South) will gain 4 teams from above (BS Premier) and 6 from below next season (2 from Northern Premier, 2 from Southern Premier and 2 from Isthmian). If more than 5 of these "new teams" need to go into Blue Square North, then we would probably end up moving south. Given that the bottom half of the BS Premier is fairly Northern in make-up, things are not looking promising, however it is far to early to tell what will happen come the end of the season.

This is the problem with being in the middle of the Country in the system we are in.

[andy]

You've hit the nail on the head, Dave.

Personally, I think it is 30:70 we will be playing in CS next year.

We have to replace five Clubs.

Two of those will automatically come from the Northern Premier. If only three northern Clubs come down, no-one needs to move. Provided no 'northern' Southern Premier sides come up.
If four come down, and Kettering are still around, we would be stay in the North presuming we were to win the northern position ahead of Kettering. Have to keep an eye on what Kings Lynn, Bromsgrove and Halesowen are doing.

The issue is timing. While the bottom four of the Conference may be predictable by around April, we would be unlikely to know about KL or Kettering until mid-May. If it has to go to arbitration with Kettering or KL, it could easily be July, and the time when pre-season fixtures are starting.

[hadley]

dave said:

Having been away for a few days, I return to find out that Andy Preece has left the club.

Am I surprised? To be honest yes. I think it was perhaps a little early, but I admire Dave Boddy for having the courage of his convictions to make the change and not letting things go from bad to worse (no doubt a lesson learned from what happended with John Barton's departure which was about 6 months too late).

Fair play to Barty for coming back to help us out in our hour of need. I for one think it is indicative of the man and to have Stanty in the dugout too, can only be a good thing in the short-term.

Long term replacements? I don't know really, although I think that with the possibility of a switch to Blue Square South next season, it would make sense to appoint someone based in the Midlands so we are hedging our bets a bit.

Personally I am not bothered about appointing a "big name," I would rather we found someone with a proven track record in non-league football. That or Martin Jol, I don't mind which.

[hadley]

I totally agree with not having a "big name" coming in. You are spot on that we need a proven manager who has won something and knows how to motivate players and get the best out of them.
Roger Ashby did OK with Nuneaton I think, I don't understand what experience Des Lyttle would bring to the club however, checking records I think Rod Brown has been successful and won things at every club he has been at.
And here's something to whet your appetite first thing in a morning, would'nt it be nice if he could bring the fans favourite Carl Heeley with him from Bromsgrove?

[Deleted]

No it probably wouldn't be all that nice to be honest. I'm not sure I'd want the legend tarnished. My personal view is that its better to find someone who can do a good job, but with no great history with the club. George Rooney was a good choice when he first came in, same with Nobby, yet the likes of Allner and JB always suffered from their previous connections with the club. Football is an emotive game, but the manager sometimes needs to be cold, decisive and very unemotive.
Whoever is selected, the whole thing is pretty much a lottery.

[prestonwcfc]

Hadley - Interesting I also have a feeling Mr Heeley may make a return as part of a dream team.

[tim]

We don't want a dream team, we want a successful one.

[Deleted]

spot on TJ

[andy]

I'd agree that it would be excellent if the appointed manager turns out to be successful. But, for the next two seasons, I dont expect any manager to do much better than mid-table.

Why would anything else be expected?

Time to bury anticipointment once and for all?

[Deleted]

I would hope that people both inside and outside the club expect a little more than mid-table. Maybe the expectation of the supporters is that a team will be full of players with pride and ambition to succeed, led by a management team able to motivate players to achieve what they themselves want to achieve. Maybe thats the expectation at places like Harrogate and Hyde and Burscough. If they can achieve then why not City?
If you don't expect much, then guess what you get? not much!

[andy]

But, Jem, what emphasis do you place, if any, on the need for a ground move in relation to the Club's performance?

In our current situation, and presuming no finance will come from the ground move before December 2009, I dont expect the Club to do much better than mid-table.

Havent 25 years shown that to be the case?

Forgive me, but what have Hyde, Burscough and Harrogate achieved? If I recall correctly, Hyde and Harrogate missed the play-offs last season by about the same distance as we did. Do you mean getting promotion from Level 3 to Level 2? Do we have to be relegated in order to match their success?

[andy]

Also see here

www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-base-rate-uk.php

Assume borrowing rate = base rate + 1% on 800,000.

At the historically low rate of 4.5% 2.5 years ago = 36,000 per annum
At today's rate of 6.75% = 54,000 per annum.

50% increase in outgoings for nothing.

Combine with a drop in average gates by > 10%.

The Club is probably worse off by about 3 grand a month than two to three years back - about half due to interest rate rises and about half due to falling gate. Then the adjustment for the FA Cup run. I dont see the baseline financial situation changing for the better over the next two years.

[wh]

dave said:

Long term replacements? I don't know really, although I think that with the possibility of a switch to Blue Square South next season, it would make sense to appoint someone based in the Midlands so we are hedging our bets a bit.

I still think that the manager and large majority of players should be local to the ground.

75% of the time they meet up will be in Worcester. It doesnt matter what league we play in then

[Deleted]

andy said:

But, Jem, what emphasis do you place, if any, on the need for a ground move in relation to the Club's performance?

None whatsoever.

[Deleted]

Why not play in both? Twice the gate money but the same ground overheads. Same size squad, just play on Saturday and Sunday. Problem solved.

[Deleted]

andy said:

Also see here

www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-base-rate-uk.php

assume borrowing rate = base rate + 1% on 800,000.

At the historically low rate of 4.5% 2.5 years ago = 36,000 per annum
At today's rate of 6.75% = 54,000 per annum.

50% increase in outgoings for nothing.

Combine with a drop in average gates by > 10%.

The Club is probably worse off by about 3 grand a month than two to three years back - about half due to interest rate rises and about half due to falling gate. Then the adjustment for the FA Cup run. I dont see the baseline financial situation changing for the better over the next two years.

But Worcester City isn't a house. Land prices are still rising at a rate of between 10 and 25% per annum (which is why property developers are buying houses and knocking them down rather than finding virgin building land)
so assume present value of SGL at £6 million, a 15% increase in land value will add an additional £900,000 next year - £5k a month interest looks cheap money compared to that.
If and when the time comes, the Board will have SGL revalued and could borrow further against a healthy balance sheet.

[Deleted]

andy said:

and presuming no finance will come from the ground move before December 2009.

Why not?

[andy]

Well, presumably, because the ground at SGL wont be sold until that date. And why fix the price now if the land value is going to be higher in two years time (as you show it might be)?

The issue for the short-term (ie the time until the ground is sold) is not the rise in value of the land (which we hope continues) but the rise in the base rate that affects the Club's interest payments on borrowing. Was the Club able to fix its borrowing rate?

Like I asked before, is the new manager to be asked to operate under the current financial regime (perhaps even a worsening one, given a reduced budget due to falling gates and higher intererst payments ) for the next two years? Is the manager to be an 'inheritor' of some of the financial benefits from the ground move within the short-term? Or is it a long-term appointment to cover both?

I think you look for very different people according to which financial circumstances the Club will be operating under.

If it is the first of those, I dont see any justification for fans to demand success where that success hasnt come before.

[Deleted]

No but a revaluation of the ground could allow the club to greatly increase its borrowings short term. Why wait till the land is sold, why not capitalise some of that equity now? Any additional borrowing costs would be quickly offset by land value increase. We could increase the debt to £2million, free up £1,000,000 capital, pay £100k a year in interest, and see the value of the land increase by a conservative £500,000 in the same year. All very simplistic I know, but it could be a way of providing more short -term liquidity for team building, which would bring in supporters and increase gate receipts etc. There's probably a very valid reason why the ground hasn't been revalued since 1991.
As far as what the manager has to operate under, well of course its the current financial regime, there's no other financial regime worthy of discussion, a ground move is still nothing more than a possibility.
I think fans, players and management should all demand success regardless of the financial situation, particularly if we can find a manager who can make a team of ordinary players do extraordinary things. Other teams have punched succesfully above their weight, why can't we?

[Bstander]

Looks like we may be taking Redditch south with us.......... www.tonykempster.co.uk/maps08-09.htm

[darrellbutler]

jcp said:

Other teams have punched succesfully above their weight, why can't we?

Because if everybody did it then nobody would be doing it.

[jcb]

darrellbutler said:

have to wait for Mazey to get back from Ayia Napa, Alicante, Colwyn Bay or wherever it is he's gone.

;D