THE NEXT AMERICAN PRESIDENT

[Tim Munslow]

With the campaign hotting up and "Super Tuesday" due tomorrow does everyone, like me, hope and pray we get a better incumbent than the present buffoon?

Personally I think it is high time we distanced ourselves from the USA; their foreign policy is dangerous for the whole world and we don't want to be dragged into another conflict like Iraq or Afghanistan. Makes me sick when I read of low public sector pay rises and the health service in crisis, and then in the next breath how many billions those two wars are costing us. Charity begins at home.

I hope they elect Barack Obama in November.

[ac]

I want Chuck Norris (or the bloke that he's backing) he would solve the world's peace problems with one roundhouse kick.

[dorothy]

None of the above.

Rather like the Superbowl it goes on for far too long and costs an obscene amount of money.

[StopfordianWCFC]

timmunslow said:

With the campaign hotting up and "Super Tuesday" due tomorrow does everyone, like me, hope and pray we get a better incumbent than the present buffoon?

Personally I think it is high time we distanced ourselves from the USA; their foreign policy is dangerous for the whole world and we don't want to be dragged into another conflict like Iraq or Afghanistan. Makes me sick when I read of low public sector pay rises and the health service in crisis, and then in the next breath how many billions those two wars are costing us. Charity begins at home.

I hope they elect Barack Obama in November.

Nice to see he has picked up on the potential floating voters of the Brookside and started advertising on this forum!

The US is about as stupid a voting system as our own, in fact more so. How else can somone who got less votes across the country in a two horse race still win the election! Crazy!

[Deleted]

I watched Michael Moore's "Sicko" the other day. American values are bankrupt.

[creaner]

Josiah Bartlett for me.

[gobby cow]

Is it your fault Tim that I have a Vote Barak Obama advert on my message board!

Nuke the lot of them I say, I have no time for them, totally shallow the lot of them

[bigdave]

whoever wins it, has to be better than the outgoing clown, personally, i don't give a sh1t, our govenment will still bow down to lick their boots!
i'm sick of seeing it every time i put sky news on making a fuss of it, would the yanks make as much fuss about our elections?
I THINK NOT!!!!!!!!!
as gobby said; nuke the lot of em!

[Croc]

here's all the weekend numbers in one long post. the averages are only for polls released 2/2 or later. I've left out the names of the pollsters and kept the raw numbers

C = Clinton, O = Obama

Tennessee:
c 36 o 31
c 49 o 35
c 55 o 35
average: c 47 o 34
undecided: 19
clinton + 13

clinton should carry the state

California:
c 36 o 34
c 45 o 36
c 41 o 45
c 44 o 45
c 40 o 46
c 39 o 40
average: c 41 o 41
undecided: 18
tied

clinton should carry the state

New Jersey:
c 43 o 43
c 40 o 39
c 50 o 36
c 43 o 42
c 47 o 41
c 48 o 43
average: c 45 o 41
undecided: 14
clinton + 4

clinton should carry the state

Arizona:
c 43 o 41
c 45 o 39
average: c: 44 o 40
undecided: 16
clinton + 4

clinton should carry the state

Utah:
c 29 o 53
average: c 29 o 53
undecided: 18
obama + 24

obama should carry the state

Missouri:
c 47 o 41
c 44 o 43
c 42 o 47
average: c 44 o 44
undecided: 12
tied

clinton should carry the state

Illinois:
o 55 c 24
average o 55 c 24
undecided: 21
obama + 29

obama should carry the state

Oklahoma:
c 41 o 17
average: c 41 o 17
undecided: 42
clinton + 24

clinton should carry the state

Alabama:
c 46 o 41
average: c 46 o 41
undecided: 13
clinton + 5

clinton should carry the state

Georgia:
c 31 o 48
c 41 o 46
c 28 o 48
c 36 o 51
c 37 o 52
c 27 o 49
average: c 33 o 49
undecided: 18
obama + 16

obama should carry this state

New York:
c 54 o 38
c 51 o 30
c 53 o 39
average: c 53 o 36
undecided: 11
clinton + 17

clinton should carry this state

Massachusetts:
c 44 o 46
average: c 44 o 46
undecided: 10
obama + 2

clinton should carry this state



races not polled and my estimate on advantages:

alaska - advantage obama
arkansas - advantage clinton
colorado - advantage obama
connecticut - draw
delaware - advantage obama
idaho - advantage obama
kansas - advantage obama
minnesota - advantage clinton
new mexico - advantage clinton
north dakota - advantage obama

btw: the presidential poll aggregates out to c 44 o 43 with 13 undecided and clinton + 1. I rate this as still advantage clinton

And can those who don't really want to discuss it but post stupid comments about Nuking people please toddle off to other threads thanks - leave those who actually take an interest in these things to shoot the breeze...

[Croc]

Projections show that a candidate needs about 2,000 delegates from the Primaries to win the outright nomination for progression to the Main Elections:

of the states above, based on raw estimates and not district and precinct math, I come up with roughly

13 states for clinton
9 states for obama

832 delegates for clinton
802 delegates for obama

add the numbers I spitballed for the unpolled states (very difficult to figure out since half of them are caucuses)

and the total is

1046 delegates for clinton
1018 delegates for obama

clinton + 28 delegates

since around iowa they've called a 80-120 delegate gap for obama, I would say this is good news. especially considering he's far better at retail politics and will be able to go back to a campaign that suits his style.

I don't know if/how this will affect the race for superdelegates (who can switch their nominations at any point).

(this also doesn't include the democrats abroad or american samoa)

[Croc]

Reports I've read just now - Obama leads Clinton by 12 points in California according to a CNN/Zogby/BBQ/Reuters/Sheinhardt Wig Company poll.

One of the projected "too close to call" states looks like it's swinging Obama's way.

Very interesting...

[gobby cow]

mmmmmmmmm that is seriously sad. I thought Andy and his wii was the epitome of sadness but I take that back now.

[Croc]

as i said before - if you don't wish to contribute in any useful way - then don't be wasting my bandwidth with comments like the above.

You're quite welcome to stay in your insular little hovel, getting excited about some footballer's legs and wondering if that big flaming ball in the sky will come back the next day - some of us are actually following this type of thing that WILL have an effect on world events over the next few years - to paraphrase the well-known saying "When America sneezes - the rest of the world catches a cold"

Or I could simply start deleting such stuff - doesn't bother me either way.

All I can surmise is between some people in this thread and the one on the press coverage a couple of days ago - this place has noticeably gone downhill.

[Deleted]

I fear for Obama. Having seen two Kennedys; Martin Luther King et al gunned down I just pray it doesn't happen again.

[LeedsWCFC]

gobbycow said:

Is it your fault Tim that I have a Vote Barak Obama advert on my message board!

Nuke the lot of them I say, I have no time for them, totally shallow the lot of them

Thanks! That stupid comment has probably got us all now under CIA surveillance.

[Tim Munslow]

Talking about nuking people is exactly the same talk as red-neck America - and God help us if anyone representative of that fraternity gets into office.

Hang on a minute! Isn't that exactly what we've got now?

[Croc]

Tim - let's just hope Iran doesn't annoy old Georgie Boy before he leaves office - then some people may actually get their wish...

[Tim Munslow]

That's exactly what scares me - just that kind of mindset is a handicap in reaching rational decisions. We want world peace, not nuclear bombs or wars.

Incidentally, whilst it may have appeared that because I posted on this subject I understand the American electoral system, I haven't a clue what all these primaries and caucuses (what's the difference please?) are actually all about.

[Croc]

In simple terms - a Caucus is when the grassroots members of the parties get together in a meeting and decide amongst themselves who they will back as a candidate. Primaries are a straight vote-off (as in a traditional election scenario).

Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

Both systems send a number of "delegates" to the National Conventions held in August/September - there they will carry out the "will of the Primaries" and select which candidate goes forward to the US Presidential Elections in November.

[gobby cow]

I know all that already, I dont need to hear about it 24/7 until November. When they have finally chosen which millionaire is to be the democrat and republican candidates, wake me up. A bleeding chimp is better than George W Bush.

[Croc]

MSNBC's Chuck Todd estimates that Obama and Clinton's delegate counts from tonight will be basically split exactly down the middle. If that is what happens (we won't know the real numbers until tomorrow) it's a huge, huge win for Obama, considering that people were talking about keeping the delegate deficit under 100 as a win. He also won the states 13-8, with New Mexico still undecided.

Obama, at the moment, seems better positioned to win a war of attrition. He brought in significantly more money than Clinton in January, and if he keeps that up, he can really press his momentum.

Hillary's pollster said earlier Tuesday that Hillary wanted to debate Obama as much as possible going forward, going so far as to say that they wanted to debate once a week. One of the pundits speculated that she's looking to get free air time because she doesn't have the money to get on often otherwise.

Not a brilliant night, but you have to be happy with it if you're for Obama. His speech was fantastic, by the way.

Bankruptcy of the Clinton strategy is showing tonight. If you only focus on the 'big' states, you lose everything else.

[gobby cow]

Boo boy why are you so interested in american politics? That is a serious question

[Croc]

I like to keep abreast of almost all current affairs - mostly political stuff.

You should see me during the Irish Elections explaining Single Transferable Vote and the Quota System.

Plus I've worked with and speak to a helluva lot of American colleagues regularly - some of whom are heavily involved with campaigning.

Lastly - I love The Daily Show

[Tony is not to despondent now.]

Thanks 'Notorius Boo Boy'. But I am still in the dark regarding the choosing of candidates for the Presidency in America.

[gobby cow]

I have never heard of the Daily Show but I applaud you keeping up with current affairs. I am very cynical about politics as the people in power tend to be elected by the minority of the population, or in our case unelected.

I am all in favour of proportional representation, it is much fairer and does away with the need to tactically vote. Sadly I doubt our government will ever allow it as it would most probably result in a hung parliament and another lib-lab pact or even worse.

I shall look forward to you commentary on the single transferable vote and the quota system.

I used to be excited by politics when I was a youngster (which I assume you are), as you get older you find they are all selfish, egotists out to better themselves, their families, and the mistresses and rent boys, and the poor man in the street who voted for them is a distant memory.

[Deleted]

Another serious question. Proportional representation has it's merits (and it's down sides) but when a candidate wins a seat because proportionally the party had a certain % of the votes, who decides which constituency he/she is given. Dpoes it mean that some constituencies are then represented by people who didn't win in that area?

[gobby cow]

That is an excellent point ealing. The candidates are on a list and if I remember correctly for the EU elections they were chosen centrally. It would make sense to go the american way and allow the electorate to chose who is on the list. Each constituency has a list of candidates. Say in H&W we had 7 mps, if the torys got 45% they would have that percentage of 7, etc etc. But it might involve sawing a few people in half.

PR does give a voice in parliament to smaller parters, even though most sane people find their politics offensive they do have a right to exist.

[creaner]

GC,I recommend The Daily Show (watch for UK comic John Oliver...) and The West Wing on telly to get you in the swing of things. Or maybe Fox News

[gobby cow]

What channel is it on?

[creaner]

www.channel4.com/entertainment/tv/microsites/D/daily_show/

www.channel4.com/entertainment/tv/microsites/W/westwing/index.html

I was joking about Fox News